INDIANAPOLIS — Wednesday’s three-way trade that sent Damian Lillard to Milwaukee, Jrue Holiday and DeAndre Ayton to Portland and Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic to Phoenix is an Earth-shifting deal that dramatically changes the landscape of the NBA less than a month before the season starts with some teams having already begun preseason camp.
There are more ripples to come, as the Trail Blazers have indicated they’ll be looking to move Holiday, fully embracing a rebuild after trading away their franchise pillar in Lillard.
ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks discussed the Pacers as a trade partner with the Blazers on Lowe’s emergency podcast Wednesday evening after news of the Lillard trade broke. Lowe floated the idea of a deal that would send Buddy Hield, Daniel Theis and two first-round picks to the Blazers in exchange for Holiday, and Marks, ESPN’s front office insider and a former executive with the Brooklyn Nets, suggested that it would make sense for the Pacers to make that kind of deal.
A day after the Lillard trade, anything involving Holiday, who is married to former Ben Davis High School soccer star Lauren (Cheney) Holiday, is in the pure speculation stage, but the idea of Pacers pursuing the two-time All-Star and five-time NBA All-Defensive Team pick is one worth considering from all sides. It would be expensive in terms of both money and assets for the Pacers to bring him in, but it would also dramatically change the trajectory of their rebuild and put them on the path to being an immediate playoff contender.
Why it makes sense for the Pacers to trade for Jrue Holiday
On March 29 after Holiday scored 51 points, dished out eight assists and grabbed eight rebounds as the Bucks dismantled the Pacers 149-136 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana coach Rick Carlisle started his post-game press conference with a challenge to anyone watching.
“I’d like to somebody to name five other basketball players that are better than Jrue Holiday at the entire game,” he said. “Guy’s an amazing player, both sides of the ball. His scoring tonight was at another level obviously, but defensively, he can guard anybody. Just a nod of respect to him. He’s a guy that too often is overlooked as a truly, truly great player.”
That tells you all you need to know about how highly regarded Holiday is in the Pacers building. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the league’s best two-way guard and its best on-ball defender. His ability to contain Chris Paul and Devin Booker while also turning up his offensive production was one of the biggest reasons the Bucks beat the Suns in the 2021 NBA Finals, and he followed that up with a phenomenal performance on both ends immediately after in Team USA’s run to Olympic gold in Tokyo, leading the Americans in steals and assists and finishing third in scoring.
The 6-3, 205-pounder isn’t a top-tier scorer, but he does almost every thing well. He can defend on and off the ball, score at all three levels, play-make for others and rebound for his position. He enters this season with career averages of 16.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game and he’s only gotten better with age. He’s averaged at least 17.7 points, 6.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals for each of the last six seasons going back to his time with the Pelicans.
Playing with the Pacers would be a move back off the ball as Tyrese Haliburton would be the starting point guard, but Holiday has plenty of shooting guard experience. He can work as a secondary ball-handler and he can shoot. He’s not nearly as consistent as Hield, but he’s hit at least 100 3-pointers in each of the last seven seasons and is a career 36.6% shooter from beyond the arc. If Haliburton gets injured as he did last season, Holiday could take the reins and the Pacers wouldn’t miss a beat. Contending for a conference title generally requires at least two All-Star-caliber players, and Holiday would give the Pacers their second one.
Putting Holiday next to Haliburton would allow the Pacers to put a defensive-oriented guard in the lineup without losing anything on offense. They could play him with Bruce Brown at the 3 or move Brown into the second unit and start Bennedict Mathurin, who has said that Holiday is a player he tries to emulate as he looks to become a better two-way player. A second unit that would include Brown, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith would give the Pacers a tough defensive group as they try to improve on a 29th-place finish in points allowed last season.
Why it doesn’t make sense for the Pacers to trade for Jrue Holiday
Acquiring Holiday would be an aggressive, bold move, but there’s reason to ask if it would be too bold and aggressive and the Pacers might ultimately not be in a place yet to take that kind of swing.
The 33-year-old Holiday is entering the final season of a four-year deal worth about $135 million. According to Spotrac, he’s due about $37.4 million in base salary this season, plus just over $2 million in likely incentives for a combined cap hit of close to $39.4 million, so he’d be by far the Pacers highest paid player for 2023-24 with Haliburton’s max contract extension not set to kick in until next year.
With $7 million still remaining in cap space, the Pacers wouldn’t have that hard of a time putting together a deal that would allow them to absorb that contract this season. They would certainly be including the 30-year-old Hield, with whom negotiations on a contract extension that would keep him beyond this season have stalled. He carries a $19.3 million cap hit this season. The Pacers could make the money close to even by including veterans Daniel Theis and T.J. McConnell, who are due $9.1 million and $8.7 million this season respectively. Theis is already in a three-way battle to be the backup center with Isaiah Jackson and Jalen Smith, and McConnell will have to compete with Nembhard to be the backup point guard, so moving them would give them better opportunities at playing time than they may have with the Pacers roster.
That being said, the Trail Blazers would likely want more than those three — possibly better or younger players, possibly draft picks including first-rounders — and the Pacers would run the risk of losing Holiday after just one season.
The Pacers could make a push to sign Holiday to an extension or re-sign him once free agency hits, though that’s risky in itself considering his age. If he were paid at even his current rate, he and Haliburton would take up around $74.9 million in cap space, more than half of a salary cap figure that’s projected to be around $142 million. That’s presuming that Haliburton won’t make an All-NBA team, which would turn his deal into a supermax contract and take up even more money. Myles Turner is owed $19.9 million for 2024-25 on his two-year extension, and if the Pacers pick up the club option on Bruce Brown for next season he’ll be owed $23 million. Those four players would take up approximately 83% of the cap, and the Pacers still have decisions to make on Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin, who could be restricted free agents after next season.
Plus, any deal they make will have to keep in mind that Mathurin will be extension eligible after the 2024-25 season and Turner is set to be a free agent after that season. The cap might go up dramatically in 2025-26 after the NBA negotiates new TV rights deals, but that might also impact what other teams can offer Holiday to pry him away from Indiana.
If Holiday ultimately leaves in free agency, it’s hard to say what kind of team performance would make the move worth it. The Pacers are still very much driven by young talent. with Haliburton being just 23, Mathurin 21 and Turner considered a veteran at 27. If their corps will have a window for championship contention, they’re still a few years away from it. Adding Holiday could make them a good enough team to be a top six seed in the East and avoid a play-in round. It might even put them on par with Cleveland and New York or maybe even Miami and Philadelphia among teams with an outside shot at a conference title. However, Milwaukee and Boston made big moves in the offseason to cement themselves as conference favorites, and if adding Holiday doesn’t put the Pacers in that realm, there’s reason to wonder if its worth it.
How a Jrue Holiday trade looks from Portland’s angle
Trading Lillard and then immediately looking to deal the most valuable asset they acquired by moving him suggests that the Trail Blazers are completely devoted to rebuilding and operating on No. 3-pick Scoot Henderson’s timeline rather than on Lillard’s.
On one hand, that makes the Pacers a great team for them to deal with because they can provide veterans who can match Holiday’s contract in the aggregate and they control all their first-round picks going forward, holding two in next season’s draft. If they were to acquire Hield, Theis and McConnell, they could be rid of all three by next season with Hield’s contract due to expire, Theis having a club option for 2024-25 and McConnell being on a non-guaranteed deal next season. They could use all that cap space to find players who fit around Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant.
However, the Blazers also head into this knowing they will have suitors on a much more desperate, win-now timeline than the Pacers are, and they have become much more desperate now that the Bucks look like a heavy favorite in the East. The Celtics added Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason, but it cost them stalwart point guard and ace defender Marcus Smart. Derrick White could handle the role if they don’t make an addition, but Holiday would be an upgrade on both ends and immediately put them back on at least a level with Milwaukee as they try to make sure they claim at least one NBA title with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown together.
The 76ers will also presumably be interested in Holiday as they try to make sure their title window doesn’t close. They have two MVPs on their roster at the moment in Joel Embiid and James Harden, but Harden has clearly indicated he wants a trade. Pursuing Holiday might but them in a position to move Harden, and give Embiid a running mate along with Tyrese Maxey. The Clippers, who haven’t yet been able to maximize the combination of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, could also use a player like Holiday to compete with the defending champion Nuggets, the re-tooled Suns, the powerful Warriors and Lakers and the up-and-coming Kings and Grizzlies in the West.
All of those teams have to be willing to spend big on Holiday with their time running out. The Pacers aren’t yet in a position where they have to make a desperate decision.
Originally posted on indystar.com