The Colts are entering Year 2 of the Shane Steichen era with elevated expectations, but a lot to prove. For some Colts, the pressure is on.
by Jay Robins
Alec Pierce: More than a Deep Threat/Still Starting WR?
So far in his NFL career, Alec Pierce has been used primarily as a deep ball target and blocker. Pierce’s strong vertical stacking ability, size, and average hands and contested catch ability makes that role a good fit for him in the Colts offense. While he needs to add more branches to his route tree to get easier separation by becoming more fluid, his role did have its uses.
However with the Colts primarily having QBs under center from 2022-2023 who struggled in deep ball passing, Alec’s biggest asset remained underused. As a result, in 2023 he ran the most route yards in the NFL and had the highest snap count in the NFL among WRs but only had 63 targets in 2023.
While his catch rate was low (49.2%) his looks were predominantly in naturally lower completion % deeper zones and 21 of them being contested. Meanwhile his hands and contested catch abilities both were average among wide receivers, showing that the low completion rate was more so due to role usage and inconsistent QB play.
After two straight drafts of Day 2 WRs drafted after Pierce’s entry in the NFL, he now faces his biggest competition yet. 2023 3rd round pick Josh Downs lowered his target share from WR2 behind Michael Pittman Jr to WR3 on the team, but Pierce at least was able to keep his starting job due to Downs being a slot WR. Now with 2024 2nd round pick Adonai Mitchell added to the receiver room, his role as the X Wideout in the Colts offense (and thus his high snap count) is in jeopardy.
Pierce still has two years left on his rookie contract, but the pressure is on for him to develop into a more complete WR to hold off AD Mitchell. While Pierce will still have a role due to his superior blocking ability because of the Colts high volume rushing attack offense, Mitchell’s better fluidity and hands while also having a strong vertical threat collegiate profile could really eat into Pierces snap count.
While returning starting QB Anthony Richardson is the best deep ball thrower in Pierce’s career, if Pierce can’t stay on the field due to Mitchell, he will not be in the best position to capitalize on that change. Heck if Mitchell takes the job from Pierce outright and fully secures it in his rookie year, Pierce could even enter his final contract year on the trade block for a better opportunity elsewhere.
JuJu Brents: CB1?
Brents’ rookie season didn’t get off to the best start, but he did have some fascinating flashes, especially considering his early obstacles. Brents had very little time on the practice field entering his rookie year, with only three weeks healthy in August before the season. He even missed the first two weeks of the season due to injuries and getting up to speed with the Colts. He played in Weeks 3-7 with four starts before a quad injury vs the Browns sidelined him until week 15. Heck he even had to leave the season finale mid-game due to a hamstring injury.
In spite of his injuries and the steep learning curve corners face going from college to the pros, Brents showed significant promise. In his limited snaps he was one of the top man coverage and single coverage corners in the NFL, and his zone coverage was league average. He showed some playmaking ability with six passes defended, an interception, a fumble and fumble recovery in just nine games.
There is an argument to be made that the only player the Colts need a bigger developmental leap from in 2024 than Brents is QB Anthony Richardson. Brents is entering Year 2 as potentially the top outside cornerback on the roster. With an AFC South that has an influx of WR talent in Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr., Tyler Boyd, and Gabe Davis along with returning talents like Nico Collins, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Tank Dell, the pressure is on for the Colts secondary to step up.
Brents needs to stay healthy and build on his promising rookie year to help the Colts slow down some of the top passing weapons in the AFC South, as well as hold off competition for his starting spot.
Fellow 2023 Jaylon Jones also had 10 games of starting experience last year, and Dallis Flowers looked like a solid starting Corner before he suffered an injury prior to Week 5. One of these three isn’t going to be in nickel sets with Kenny Moore II, and it is up to JuJu stay on the field.
Will Fries: Stay a Starter in 2024, Set Up 2025 Pay Day
Of the five Colts starting offensive lineman, right guard Will Fries is the only one with some danger of losing his starting job in 2024. Veterans Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are each entrenched in their left guard, center, and right tackle jobs respectively after many years of Top 10 play at their spots. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann had a big breakout in 2023 as a Top 10 left tackle, showing strong ability in both pass protection and road grading. Will Fries at right guard remains the weak spot of the OL if all the starters are together.
That isn’t to say Will Fries is a bad starting guard. He has improved significantly from his nine starts from 2022 to his 17 in 2023, especially in pass protection.
2022: 5.2% Pressure Rate Allowed (20 Pressures) & 44 Pass Pro Grade (75th/87 qualified Guards)
2023: 4.4% Pressure Rate Allowed (30 Pressures) & 65.4 Pass Pro Grade (29th/88 qualified Guards)
He still had his issues, namely his nine penalties tying him for 4th most among all interior blockers. But ultimately Fries gave a career year and alleviated most concerns about the right guard spot after the Colts chose not to address the spot in the 2023 offseason.
The former Nittany Lion is entering the final year of his rookie contract as the presumed starter after this 2023 leap. However, the pressure is on to repeat if not build upon his 2023 success. 2024 rookies Matt Goncalves (3rd round) and Tanor Bortolini (4th round) each have experience at 4 of the 5 spots along the line after decorated careers at Pitt and Wisconsin respectively. They likely figure into the Colts long term plans, potentially at a variety of spots, including right guard. In 2024 they could even push Fries for his starting spot, so it is up to him to hold his spot and set himself up for a nice payday, whether that be returning to the Colts or out on the open market.
Nick Cross/Rodney Thomas II: Who Will Emerge As Starting Safety?
The Colts biggest question on the roster is free safety. Both 3rd year safeties Nick Cross (3rd Round) and Rodney Thomas II are competing for the starting safety spot. Thomas earned 25 starts over the last two years at that spot, but after a promising rookie year his 2023 regression allowed Cross to reclaim the job in the final two games of the season. Nick Cross entered the NFL as the youngest player in the league and with a clear need for development, so his early career struggles are understandable. Cross will be 23 this season, and the pressure for his development increases with each passing year. Especially considering the former Maryland Terrapin was a player the Colts traded up to acquire in Round 3 of the 2022 Draft, costing a 2023 3rd round pick.
Thomas meanwhile needs to re-earn his starting job. As a 7th rounder, the Colts didn’t invest the same draft capital in him as Cross, and as a player turning 26 in 2024, he doesn’t have the inexperience reason for his developmental curve. His flashes in his 4 INT rookie season were nice, but the pressure is on in 2024 after failing to make a similar impact in year 2.
With several capable veteran safeties still on the market (most notably All Pro S Justin Simmons and Pro Bowl S Quandre Diggs), the pressure is on not just this season, but this training camp to prove that they are good enough to earn this job. If neither impress early in Camp, there is a chance the Colts look to add a veteran and force them into a competition for the 3rd safety role.
Dayo Odeyingbo: The Only Colts Edge Rusher Not Under Contract Past 2024.
The Colts edge rush core is a highly deep and young unit. Veterans Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis are each 29 and coming off of career years. Both have two years left on their contracts with the Colts. Kwity Paye emerged down the stretch of his third year as a pass rusher with his 12th best pass rush win rate from Week 10 on, all while being a highly effective run stopper throughout the year on the edge. Kwity has been given his 5th year option so he will remain with the team for the next two seasons. The Colts drafted UCLA’s Laiatu Latu in round 1 of this past draft, and the rookie is one of the most productive pass rushers we have seen in the last 10 years of scouting. He has four years on his deal plus a potential 5th year option.
The only one of the top 5 edge rushers on the Colts not under contract past 2024: Dayo Odeyingbo. The 2021 2nd Round pick has steadily regained his form and improved following a devastating Achilles injury in a Bowl game during his final collegiate season. In 2023 he had a career high eight sacks (12 per PFF as they count half sacks as full sacks) in just 365 pass rush snaps, thriving as an edge rusher/3 technique defensive tackle.
However, with the Colts keeping Tyquan Lewis (who plays a similar role) for two more seasons, using Kwity Paye’s 5th year option, and drafting Laiatu Latu, the competition for snaps is tougher than ever in this rotation. As Odeyingbo enters his contract year, he has to maintain a solid role in this rotation and perform in his likely lessened snaps to set himself up for a payday for his 2nd contract. Hopefully the Colts can keep this promising pass rusher afterwards, but Dayo could be set up for a handsome pay raise in the open market if he performs well in 2024.
Originally posted on stampedeblue.com