by Paul Bretl
In part, it’s happenstance. But also, with the Colts finishing third in the AFC South in 2023, losing the tie-breaker with Jacksonville, who finished second, Indianapolis now has one of the easier schedules on paper this season.
When it comes to determining who each team’s opponents are going to be, there are several factors in play, but of course, there is a method to the madness. Over at NFL.com, it is explained what goes into determining how each team’s schedule shakes out:
Six games against divisional opponents — two games per team, one at home and one on the road.
Four games against teams from a division within its conference — two games at home and two on the road.
Four games against teams from a division in the other conference— two games at home and two on the road.
Two games against teams from the two remaining divisions in its own conference — one game at home and one on the road. Matchups are based on division ranking from the previous season.
The 17th game is an additional game against a non-conference opponent from a division that the team is not scheduled to play. Matchups are based on division ranking from the previous season.
Other variables that can impact the difficulty of the schedule – and these are factors we don’t know yet – include any long road trips, how many air miles are logged, any difficult stretches against top-tier competition, and whether a team finishes out the season on the road or at home.
While we don’t yet know the sequence in which the Colts will play each of their opponents in 2024, we do know who those opponents are. Recently, over at Sharp Football, they ranked every team based on their strength of schedule. The criteria for deciding this order is based on the projected win totals set by the oddsmakers for each teams’ opponents.
Here is how all 32 teams were ranked from the easiest schedule to the most challenging.
1) Atlanta Falcons – Implied win line: 9.8 wins
Non-divisional opponents: Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Seahawks, Steelers, @Broncos, @Raiders, @Eagles, @Commanders, @Vikings
2) Los Angeles Chargers – Implied win line: 8.9
Non-divisional opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Buccaneers, Titans, @Falcons, @Panthers, @Browns, @Steelers, @Patriots, @Cardinals
3) Chicago Bears – Implied win line: 8.7
Non-divisional opponents: Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Titans, Panthers, Patriots, @Cardinals, @Texans, @Colts, @49ers, @Commanders
4) New York Jets – Implied win line: 9.55
Non-divisional opponents: Texans, Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, @Cardinals, @Jaguars, @49ers, @Titans, @Steelers, @Vikings
5) New Orleans Saints – Implied win line: 7.6
Non-divisional opponents: Broncos, Raiders, Eagles, Commanders, Rams, Browns, @Cowboys, @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Giants, @Packers
6) Cincinnati Bengals – Implied win line: 10.6
Non-divisional opponents: Broncos, Raiders, Eagles, Commanders, Patriots, @Cowboys, @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Giants, @Titans, @Panthers
7) Indianapolis Colts – Implied win line: 8.3
Non-divisional opponents: Bills, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Steelers, @Packers, @Vikings, @Patriots, @Jets, @Broncos, @Giants
8) Miami Dolphins – Implied win line: 9.85
Non-divisional opponents: Cardinals, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans, Raiders, @ Texans, @ Colts, @ Rams, @ Seahawks, @ Browns, @ Packers
9) Philadelphia Eagles – Implied win line: 10.35
Non-divisional opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Packers, Jaguars, @Ravens, @Bengals, @Saints, @Buccaneers, @Rams
10) Carolina Panthers – Implied win line: 4.75
Non-divisional opponents: Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Cardinals, Bengals, @Broncos, @Raiders, @Eagles, @Commanders, @Bears
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Implied win line: 8.15
Non-divisional opponents: Broncos, Raiders, Eagles, Commanders, 49ers, Ravens, @Cowboys, @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Giants, @Lions
12) Kansas City Chiefs – Implied win line: 11.5
Non-divisional opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Buccaneers, Texans, @Falcons, @Panthers, @Browns, @Steelers, @Bills, @49ers
13) Washington Commanders – Implied win line: 6.6
Non-divisional opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Bears, Titans, @Ravens, @Bengals, @Saints, @Buccaneers, @Cardinals
14) Jacksonville Jaguars – Implied win line: 8.65
Non-divisional opponents: Packers, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Browns, @Bills, @Bears, @Lions, @Dolphins, @Raiders, @Eagles
15) Seattle Seahawks – Implied win line: 7.5
Non-divisional opponents: Bills, Packers, Dolphins, Vikings, Giants, Broncos, @Bears, @Lions, @Patriots, @Jets, @Falcons
16) Arizona Cardinals – Implied win line: 6.6
Non-divisional opponents: Bears, Lions, Patriots, Jets, Commanders, Chargers, @Bills, @Packers, @Dolphins, @Vikings, @Panthers
17) Los Angeles Rams – Implied win line: 8.5
Non-divisional opponents: Bills, Packers, Dolphins, Vikings, Eagles, Raiders, @Bears, @Lions, @Patriots, @Jets, @Saints
18) San Francisco 49ers – Implied win line: 11.15
Non-divisional opponents: Bears, Lions, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Chiefs, @Bills, @Packers, @Dolphins, @Vikings, @Buccaneers
19) Green Bay Packers – Implied win line: 10.1
Non-divisional opponents: Cardinals, Texans, Colts, 49ers, Saints, Dolphins, @Jaguars, @Rams, @Seahawks, @Titans, @Eagles
20) New York Giants – Implied win line: 6.25
Non-divisional opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Buccaneers, Vikings, Colts, @Falcons, @Panthers, @Browns, @Steelers, @Seahawks
21) Detroit Lions – Implied win line: 10.5
Non-divisional opponents: Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Titans, Buccaneers, Bills, @Cardinals, @Texans, @Colts, @49ers, @Cowboys
22) Dallas Cowboys – Implied win line: 10.4
Non-divisional opponents: Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Buccaneers, Lions, Texans, @Falcons, @Panthers, @Browns, @Steelers, @49ers
23) Buffalo Bills – Implied win line: 10.6
Non-divisional opponents: Cardinals, Jaguars, 49ers, Titans, Chiefs, @Texans, @Colts, @Rams, @Seahawks, @Ravens, @Lions
24) Las Vegas Raiders – Implied win line: 6.75
Non-divisional opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Jaguars, @Ravens, @Bengals, @Saints, @Buccaneers, @Dolphins, @Rams
25) Denver Broncos – Implied win line: 5.75
Non-divisional opponents: Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Colts, Ravens, @Bengals, @Saints, @Buccaneers, @Jets, @Seahawks
26) Houston Texans – Implied win line: 9.8
Non-divisional opponents: Bills, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Ravens, @Packers, @Vikings, @Patriots, @Jets, @Chiefs, @Cowboys
27) Tennessee Titans – Implied win line: 6.15
Non-divisional opponents: Packers, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Bengals, @Bills, @Bears, @Lions, @Dolphins, @Chargers, @Commanders
28) Minnesota Vikings – Implied win line: 6.75
Non-divisional opponents: Cardinals, Texans, Colts, 49ers, Falcons, Jets, @Jaguars, @Rams, @Seahawks, @Titans, @Giants
29) Baltimore Ravens – Implied win line: 11.3
Non-divisional opponents: Broncos, Raiders, Eagles, Commanders, Bills, @Cowboys, @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Giants, @Texans, @Buccaneers
30) Cleveland Browns – Implied win line: 8.7
Non-divisional opponents: Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Dolphins, @Broncos, @Raiders, @Eagles, @Commanders, @Jaguars, @Saints
31) New England Patriots – Implied win line: 4.87
Non-divisional opponents: Texans, Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers, @Cardinals, @Jaguars, @49ers, @Titans, @Bengals, @Bears
32) Pittsburgh Steelers – Implied win line: 8.6
Non-divisional opponents: Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Jets, @Broncos, @Raiders, @Eagles, @Commanders, @Colts, @Falcons