With a playoff-like game on tap for Saturday evening, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans will duke it out to decide who gets into the NFL postseason.
by Drake Wally
The Indianapolis Colts have the most important game of their 2023 season this Saturday evening at Lucas Oil Stadium. With a primetime slot, they’ll look to sweep the Houston Texans and get into the Wild Card slot for a potential playoff run.
With Shane Steichen versus DeMeco Ryans on deck, it’s time to dive into the five most important goals for Indy to accomplish as both AFC South rivals look to get a massive victory.
1) Limit Texans Pass-Rushers
For the Texans, both defensive ends Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr. will be the focal point of Ryan’s scheme to get to quarterback Gardner Minshew if they suit up.
The Colts used the offensive tackle tandem of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith to snuff out the Las Vegas Raiders and superstar pass-rusher Maxx Crosby in Week 17, with Minshew only taking one sack on the day. This was after the Colts QB took an unprecedented 11 hits and six sacks on Christmas Eve against the Atlanta Falcons.
If Indy wants to take advantage of the Texan’s weaker pass defense, then it starts, again, with Raimann and Smith stopping this duo of edge rushers. On the year, Greenard (12.5) and Anderson (seven) lead Houston’s defensive front.
Also, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins has six sacks in 2023, so the Colts must be on point or Minshew might struggle with the pressure as he has at times throughout the year. The injury report will be one to monitor, as all three of these members of the Texans have been battling ankle injuries and have missed multiple practices this week.
2) Contain WR Nico Collins’ Impact
With the dynamic rookie wide receiver Tank Dell on injured reserve (fibula), the bulk of Houston’s receiving duties will fall on third-year pass-catcher Nico Collins.
On the year, Collins pretty much leads the team in all receiving categories. Below are his metrics and ranks on the squad.
- 71 catches (1st)
- 100 targets (1st)
- 1,102 receiving yards (1st)
- Seven receiving touchdowns (tied-1st w/Dell)
Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been able to maximize the talents of Collins and will need to get him going if the Texans want to effectively move the ball, as they haven’t been the most consistent on the ground (22nd in the NFL in rush yards per game with 99.2).
With mainstay cornerback Kenny Moore II appearing to be on track for a return, it couldn’t come at a better time than now, as both Stroud and Collins can tee off against anyone if not challenged properly.
3) Run the Ball Effectively
While Houston isn’t boasting the best pass defense, they are far stronger against the run. On the year, they’re tied for third in the NFL in rush yards allowed per contest (88.5). Given the lack of mobility of Minshew and the importance of a balanced game plan, Steichen’s approach will likely feature a decent dosage of Jonathan Taylor.
Also, fellow backs Zack Moss and Trey Sermon could also be in tow for carries, as the former is starting to recover from a forearm injury that sidelined him for multiple games. If Moss can go on Saturday, it gives Indy the chance to use all three backs to help boost the offensive ground attack.
Taylor is coming off a solid performance against the Raiders (21 carries for 96 rush yards and one TD), which gives him confidence heading into this win-and-in showdown.
4) Put Pressure on C.J. Stroud
Stroud has shown he could be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year when the regular season concludes. Through his debut campaign, he’s completed 299/473 passes for 3,844 pass yards, 21 TDs to five interceptions. These are blistering numbers for any rookie passer.
However, Houston hasn’t done well protecting their QBs this season. Currently, they’re tied for the sixth-most sacks allowed (45). After a game against Las Vegas where only two sacks were applied on Aidan O’Connell, this is a big opportunity to change that for Indy.
Defensive ends like Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, and Dayo Odeyingbo were left without sacks last week and will strive to improve. Three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil is also questionable with a groin injury that has nagged him this year. If he cannot go by the Saturday night game, it could be more difficult to contain these Colts pass rushers than expected.
5) Attack Texans Secondary
As mentioned in a previous entry, Houston is strong against the run, but not so much against the pass.
On the season, the young defense has struggled, currently tied for 26th in the league in pass yards allowed per game (240.4). This doesn’t mean that Minshew should try to have a shootout with Stroud, as he isn’t that type of field general.
But, especially if Greenard, Anderson, and Rankins are limited or don’t play, it could give Minshew plenty of time to pick targets and be comfortable, which any veteran QB can threaten any NFL defense if time is allowed.
While the Colts will still need to run the ball due to their offensive identity, Minshew could also parlay a good ground scheme into some great metrics if everything falls in line for Steichen’s offense.
Players like wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs; as well as tight ends Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, and Mo Alie-Cox, could potentially take advantage of Houston if they can’t pressure Gardner.
With that being said, there’s zero reason to underestimate the talents of corners Derek Stingley Jr. (five interceptions) and Steven Nelson (four interceptions), or even safety Jalen Pitre. Despite the rough defensive pass ranks, these Texans players, among others, can make any QB pay for errant throws.
Originally posted on Horseshoe Huddle on FanNation