Colts Hold No. 7 Seed Entering Week 17 but do not Completely Control Postseason Destiny

The Colts retained possession of the AFC No. 7 even with their Week 16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons but could slip out of the playoffs even if they win out. 

by JJ Stankevitz

Key Week 16 results:

• Falcons 29, Colts 10: No. 7 seed Colts fall to 8-7
• Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12: AFC South-leading Jaguars fall to 8-7
• Browns 36, Texans 22: No. 5 Browns improve to 10-5, No. 8 seed Texans fall to 8-7
• Bills 24, Chargers 22: No. 6 seed Bills improve to 9-6
• Steelers 34, Bengals 11: No. 9 seed Steelers improve to 8-7, No. 10 seed Bengals improve fall to 8-7
• Broncos vs. Patriots (TBD, Sunday night)

AFC Standings (*denotes division leader; Broncos and Patriots play Sunday night; Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders play on Monday)

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3)*
2. Miami Dolphins (11-4)*
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)*
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)*
5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
8. Houston Texans (8-7)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
11. Denver Broncos (7-7)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
13. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
14. Tennessee Titans (5-10)
15. New York Jets (6-9)
16. New England Patriots (3-11)

Current Tiebreakers

With more than two teams tied for the No. 7 seed, and no team having a head-to-head sweep over the teams with the same record, the Colts own the AFC No. 7 seed thanks to their 6-4 conference record. However, both the Colts and Texans own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers, which is why Pittsburgh – even at 6-5 in the AFC, a half-game better than the 5-5 Texans, are behind Houston in the standings.

The tiebreakers don’t totally matter right now, though, because the Colts don’t control their own destiny even if they win out. There’s only one circumstance where the Colts go 10-7 and don’t make the playoffs:

• The Jaguars go 2-0
• The Bills go 2-0
• The Browns go at least 1-1
• The Steelers and Broncos lose at least one game
• The Bengals go 2-0

In this scenario, the Colts and Bengals are the only two teams with 10-7 records and are behind the Browns and Bills in the AFC playoff standings. Because the Bengals own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, they would get the AFC No. 7 seed, and the Colts would not make the playoffs.

Note: This post will be updated after the Broncos-Patriots game, but the Colts would remain the AFC No. 7 seed regardless of the outcome of that game.

Remaining Schedules (key head-to-head games in bold)

Colts (8-7):

• Week 17: vs. Raiders (6-8)
• Week 18: vs. Texans (8-7)

Jaguars (8-7):

• Week 17: vs. Panthers (2-13)
• Week 18: at Titans (5-10)

Browns (10-5):

• Week 17: vs. Jets (6-9)
• Week 18: at Bengals (8-7)

Bills (9-6):

• Week 17: vs. Patriots (3-11)
• Week 18: at Dolphins (10-4)

Texans (8-7):

• Week 17: vs. Titans (5-10)
• Week 18: at Colts (8-7)

Steelers (8-7):

• Week 17: at Seahawks (8-7)
• Week 18: at Ravens (11-3)

Bengals (8-7):

• Week 17: at Chiefs (9-5)
• Week 18: vs. Browns (10-5)

Broncos (7-7):

• Week 16: vs. Patriots (3-11)
• Week 17: vs. Chargers (5-10)
• Week 18: at Raiders (6-8)

Playoff odds

The playoff odds for each wild card contender (right now, any team with at least seven wins) via the New York Times‘ Upshot playoff predictor:

1. Browns (99%, up from 88% last week)
2. Bills (83%, up from 69% last week)
3. Colts (53% up from 52% last week)
4. Texans (35%, down from 55% last week)
5. Bengals (11%, down from 34% last week)
6. Steelers (9%, up from 3% last week)
7. Broncos (TBD)

And the AFC South odds after all three contending teams lost on Sunday:

1. Jaguars (79%)
2. Colts (12%)
3. Texans (9%)

Originally posted on colts.com